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This book outlines what is uncertainty, differentiates it into three types, and studies the relationship amongst them, role of institutions coupled with learning and institutional change under uncertainty. The trend of increasing energy deficit and rolling blackouts for Nepal is then established using quantitative data, collected via fieldwork. Furthermore the case of Kulekhani , a rain-fed reservoir producing hydroelectricity near Kathmandu Valley is presented and areas / points of uncertainty are mapped. This is done by looking at daily hydroelectricity production data of the reservoir for the past 29 years and isolating statistical outliers, which are then treated as points of uncertainties. The institutional change mediated by these different types uncertainties are further evaluated via literature review and elite interviews to understand the dynamics at play. The study shows supply and change in preference in demand to initiate institutional change, the specifics of which are path dependent, ideology inspired and vary with power distributions of participating actors. The type of uncertainty, urgency and response time-frame shape the learning process.

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Jha, Srijna
Srijna Jha is a Physicist, specialized in Natural Resource Management & Technology Adoption For Food & Water Security. Why do certain technologies fail? How do we optimize learning and knowledge transfer? These are some of her focus areas. Having lived & worked on 3 continents gives her a holistic, multicultural & interdisciplinary understanding.

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